Why Saudi Arabia should not step in into Iraq
By: Turki Faisal Al Rasheed
Riyadh – It is not the first time that I read something from Nawaf Obeid that steers debate and concern about the integrity of this so-called national security advisor to the Saudi government, expert on terrorism and often self-proclaimed think and insider to whatever happens in the Kingdom. I do truly believe in diversity and the free expression of ideas but I’m baffled by what Obeid suggests in his recent WP article. I’m confused because I don’t really know if these are his ideas or the ideas of some other people or he’s just again trying to steer more debate around his name. Certainly his so-called advisory position with the Saudi government makes me think if these are thoughts that have come to him or freely produced by his own will. I know that I have been quite persistent in challenging his integrity but I have to when I see so many titles and posts that this person is holding. Certainly the post of a managing director denotes some kind of a business title but the job description is far away from the corporate world.
Some points about his main arguments. Firstly, I seriously cast doubt on the amount of pressure that exists at the moment within the Kingdom in support of Iraqi Sunnis. Saudis are concerned about the fate of Iraq but they would prefer to stay away in contrast to what Obeid asserts. Those who want Saudi Arabia to intervene are non others than the Americans who are trying to find a quick exit from Iraq. Saudi Arabia will not fight or seriously engage itself in Iraq. Who are the new generation of royals in Saudi Arabia who are willing to put the Kingdom in a loss-loss situation in Iraq. Even if there are royals who are close to the Americans I can’t think of any royal who will think of bailing the Americans out by putting Saudi Arabia at an impasse unless those royals are willing to sacrifice the national interest of the Kingdom for that wider interests of American in the region.
Secondly, Saudi Arabia’s obligation to act as a supporter of the Sunni world is not enough of an argument to compel the Kingdom to intervene in the way Obeid is suggesting. There are many other ways in which the Kingdom can be an active helping hand in Iraq that helps reconcile rather than stir more aggression against the Kingdom. Arming the ex-Baathist militias will not help bring peace but only bring more violence in Iraq. Is it clear that the ex-Baathists will win such a war or will it escalate into an all out civil war that will only place Saudi Arabia as the final recipient of violence in the Kingdom’s territory? We all know what happened when Saudi Arabia willingly supported and funded the war in Afghanistan. Back in the 1980s American was fighting the Soviet empire now American wants to encounter Iran but it can’t so is Saudi Arabia going to fight the war on their behalf? Has Obeid and the new generation of royals who he claims to know their views assessed the impact of such actions inside the Kingdom? Will there be no pressure from other tribes against such an action? I bet you there will be and I bet you there will be on action.
Thirdly, I find nearly impossible for Saudi Arabia to act as a free agent and decide to increase oil production. There are many issues that come to mind that support my views on this issue. Saudi Arabia’s position in OPEC is strategic and certainly never has Saudi Arabia acted on its own when it increased production. Also, Saudi Arabia will go from friend to foe within OPEC and outside if it decides to increase its production. Iran’s ability to fund the Shiias will continue with or without oil. It will take many years for Iran’s elite to think that their policy in Iraq will end simply because they have no funds. The more Saudi Arabia is seen as the culprit of a fall in oil prices the more Iran will stubbornly support the Shiias in Iraq. One other point, if oil prices fall from their current price of $61-62 per barrel to half that then Saudi Arabia will be facing a budget deficit and not a surplus. This year’s budget is calculated on $34 per barrel so Obeid is wrong to assume that the finances of the state will be in good order. Ultimately the country will be facing many more enemies inside than those it will be trying to support in Iraq. On top of all this we should not forget that the Saudi stock market has crashed by around 60% and a lot of people have lost their life savings. What will happen if the state begins to falter and appear financially sick? If the Kingdom’s citizens are sick and the state catches a virus then the mixture will be lethal for the Kingdom. Inaction is not something that I am suggesting but at the same time an all out war is something that the Kingdom should not be striving for. The Kingdom is not turning a blind eye on the massacres that are going on in Iraq. Saudi Arabia’s credibility in the Islamic world is not at stake nor was it at stake back in the 1980s. Justifying Saudi Arabia’s involvement in Iraq for face saving reasons is only a pretext that some people are trying to find for the Kingdom’s involvement in Iraq.
By: Turki Faisal Al Rasheed
November 30, 2007